Whilst taking my time to think of a first piece, I didn’t really know where I should start – with such a variety of topics to choose from, it was a bit of a daunting choice.
However, only a couple of days ago, my first topic was almost chosen for me by the sheer shock of the news that Watford’s manager, Marco Silva, had been sacked. Silva’s Watford sat 10th in the Premier League on the day of his sacking – taking 4 wins and 3 draws from their opening 11 games, there was genuine excitement amongst the Watford faithful that they’d finally found the man to fulfil their potential of becoming a top 8 Premier League side.
A drop in form – 1 win in his last 11 games – coincided with an approach from Everton; an approach that, in public at least, he rarely acknowledged as ever being close to successful. To the Watford faithful, the consensus is that the right decision was made – a manager whose head was turned by the lure of a ‘bigger club’, no longer seemed to show the desire that initiated his success.
Although I can’t profess to having watched Watford’s performances closely this year, I believe that, although their fans could largely be right, I would highlight another reason that may have led to his departure – a phenomenon simply labelled as ‘over-achieving’.
There’s no doubting that Watford are club with huge potential; that was demonstrated in their early performances this season. Despite this potential, it is not realistic to expect Watford to be consistently pushing put performances to keep them within touching distance of the ‘Top 6’ – they are a consistent mid-table team for sure.
The issue with this comes from the fact that, excluding the ‘Top 6’, clubs are now unhappy just to participate in the Premier League. Membership into England’s elite doesn’t come easily and it appears that certain owners don’t understand this. Take Claude Puel’s sacking at Southampton last year; despite finishing 8th and coming close to winning the League Cup, Puel was deemed to have performed below the required standard. Southampton now sit in 18th in the Premier League, in the relegation zone – the statistics themselves show how good a decision his sacking may have been.
The shining example of the issue of the over-achieving manager, however, comes from Puel’s current club, Leicester City. Claudio Ranieri, King Claudio, Premier League winning manager; in his first season at the club, there were questions as to whether he’d be able to save his side from relegation. In fact, he’d go a few better than that, taking Leicester to the Premier League title for the first time, in one of the best sporting stories that will ever be told. Yet, despite the fairytale of the 15/16 season, Claudio was sacked with his side 1 place above the relegation zone in late February 2017. Despite the threat of relegation, Leicester came under heavy criticism for their decision – the key point being that winning the league was never their aim – that they were a side who would have been happy with 15th place. I have no doubt in my mind that had Ranieri finished 14th rather than 1st in that magnificent season, he would still be in his job.
The romance of football is always placed on the underdog – the over achieving manager is one who, in their times of success, are often lauded for the fantastic job they’ve done. Maintaining these standards often comes with a lot of difficulty and with 8 of the 20 managers who started this Premier League campaign already being sacked, the outlook doesn’t seem to be changing any time soon. Whilst managers continue to over achieve, they’ll continue to reap the initial reward and deal with the consequences of inconsistency afterwards.
Silva, however, may be left wondering that if he’d only displayed a little more mediocrity initially, he may still be on the touchlines of Vicarage Road.
Duncan's Dugout 